Jeremy's Blog 3rd March 2023: The Lessons of Tomatoes

This article by Jeremy Moody first appeared in the CAAV e-Briefing of 2nd March 2023

Eggs and then tomatoes have long been features of the rougher end of political debate but the new shortage of tomatoes might now make a sharper political point than the travails of the egg sector.

In the shifting debates over food security, supplies have continued to reach shop shelves. The supply chain was seen to perform well in managing and adapting to the early days of the pandemic. However, rising food production costs have brought more strains with prices not responding to the increased costs and risks of production. While the autumn saw reduced volumes of eggs when prices did not move for increased feed and energy costs, the evidence is of more generally reduced production across vegetables, potatoes and horticulture – significant high value sectors of UK agriculture.

This is now thrust into the limelight by a shortage of imported tomatoes. Domestic production would anyway be lower at this time of year but energy costs have left many glasshouses empty. We take winter tomatoes from Morocco and Spain. Moroccan supplies have been reduced by drought and disease while Spain has had cold, wet weather. Storms have disrupted Mediterranean crossings.

So far, these issues affect all Europe where tomatoes are reported to remain available but dearer: war-torn Ukraine is said to have a better supply of tomatoes than the UK. We do require another sea crossing and there have been strikes in both Calais and Dover. However, the factor most under domestic control is the supermarkets’ approach to the supply chain with unresponsive pricing and less tolerance of produce not meeting aesthetic specifications. That makes our supermarkets less attractive to suppliers than other European outlets. Such choices by international supply chains are leaving empty shelves here, dramatising a point that British farmers have long tried to make.

Of course, this is not only about tomatoes or peppers, cucumbers and salads but also crops nearer home such as broccoli, cauliflower and kale with reports of the UK’s brassicas area falling. While the Secretary of State may delight in turnips (not normally substituted for tomatoes), market data suggest that their production area (albeit reported with carrots) was falling in 2021.

This also offers further lessons about:

• dependence on extended chains with risks of disruption, especially when relying on a single source
• the challenges from volatile weather with climate change
• the impact of higher energy costs
• the position should the UK no longer be rich enough to be an effective bidder in international markets.

Policy makers saying that we should eat more fruit and vegetables does not drive increased domestic production at a time when commercial forces are arrayed against it. While we await DEFRA’s reports under the Agriculture Act on the supply chains for pigs and dairy, a reappraisal by supermarkets of their approach to contracts and pricing for food appears key to turning the tide. The politics of tomatoes may make ministers more interested in the practices of supermarkets.