Jeremy's Blog 24th February 2023: Early Signs of the Election
This article by Jeremy Moody first appeared in the CAAV e-Briefing of 24th February 2023
With the Government now apparently stabilised after the events of 2022, decisions are coming steadily. Following January’s news on the English schemes for 2023 and 2024 with payment rates and the Environmental Improvement Plan, more news on productivity grants was given at the NFU AGM and then the long awaited policy development on biodiversity net gain was issued. We await much else including detail for de-linking and the Government’s response to Baroness Rock’s report to it on tenancy issues as well as the larger need for economic growth, perhaps in next month’s Budget.
Yet markets are reminding us of stronger forces. Supermarket shelves suggest more pressure now on parts of the food supply chain than in the pandemic. Sharply increased energy costs have curtailed glasshouse production here and on the continent while Mediterranean bad weather has disrupted trade. Tomatoes and salads are now in short supply, if unseasonal. More widely, increased costs and risks with a lack of price response from buyers are reducing production across field vegetables, potatoes, poultry, eggs and pigs.
We are now less than two years, perhaps 18 months or less, to the next election after the Government’s first three years firefighting crises, dominated by the pandemic, book-ended by first achieving departure from the EU and then the instability from June to October 2022 – and the war in Ukraine now a year old.
The NFU AGM saw speeches from DEFRA Minsters and Sir Keir Starmer, each followed by questions. Each had an eye on that election but from different starting points and goals: the former implementing policy and held to account for it; the latter for the opposition with its critique and implied squaring of circles.
Mark Spencer, Minister for Farming, supplemented DEFRA’s January prospectus focused on environmental land management with the array of productivity schemes, including support for animal health and slurry and opening the next round of the Farming Equipment and Technology Fund. Outlining the process of the agricultural transition, he looked to opportunities. He was quizzed on policy implementation from Countryside Stewardship payment rates to border controls while, next day, the hall felt frustrated by Thérèse Coffey’s replies on supply chain issues.
Sir Keir spoke to set out a mood of orderliness and respect, working in partnership, criticising without stridency – his prime job was to reassure, not inform. Not facing events in Government, he criticised “sticking plaster” measures. He endorsed the public goods approach of present schemes, “the principles that drive the Rock Review” and onshore solar and wind. Questioned by an urban fringe farmer on Labour’s right to roam policy, he said he believed in it but would implement it in partnership – unsettling his other mentions of partnership. This was not the forum for him to resolve the tensions in that and other policy areas on which he touched.
It was the contrasting clear responses of Tony Danker, Director General of the CBI, that caught the AGM’s enthusiasm. In a conversation on delivering growth, he pointed to the changes in planning and other areas that were still powerful tools when public finances meant that fiscal support was not feasible.
Whoever is the Government in 2025 will face those financial constraints and the challenge of achieving growth. With little evidence for any substantive difference in agricultural and environmental policy between the parties – the position since at least the last War – the interest may be in how other policies might bear on farming.
That equally brings attention back to how businesses themselves plan for their own future. Where will each business look to be in 2030?