Jeremy's Blog 10th March 2023: Competition for Water

This article by Jeremy Moody first appeared in the CAAV e-Briefing of 9th March 2023

Shortage of water is an increasingly serious concern, even for the UK. Far from the traditional “February Fill-dyke”, we have just had the driest February in 30 years with 45 per cent of the usual rainfall. For East Anglia, it was the driest since 1959 with just 14 per cent of usual rainfall and 3.5mm in Essex. The shortage was generally significant across much of England, Wales and Ireland. Carrying forward last year shortages, this poses a challenge for the country and much of farming, with water management one part of adapting to climate change.

Parts of East Anglia, Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly are still regarded as being in drought. The National Drought Group, bringing together Government, water companies, farmers and others, has said that we are “one hot dry spell away from drought”. Work reported by the Times finds that a severe drought in 2024 would see public water supplies run out in parts of not only of Essex, Kent, Sussex, Hampshire, Hertfordshire and north London but also of Yorkshire.

This compounds the risks for farm enterprises dependent on water. One Suffolk farmer has cut planned roots cropping by a quarter for want of 60m gallons of water. It appears significant that the first theme for DEFRA’s Farming Transformation Fund was water and irrigation. The Minister told the NFU AGM “in the months ahead, we will give you even more options to invest in water storage, and improve irrigation”. As well as improving irrigation efficiency, it now seems prudent for farmers reliant on irrigation to have the capacity to hold more than a year’s supply of water and so manage any limits on abstraction, allowing time for permissions and licences.

In stressed areas, a growing population, farming, industry and nature compete for water. Further abstraction from depleted rivers risks other government goals, including biodiversity, while lower water volumes intensify the effects of any pollution. One of the new environmental targets in England is to reduce the amount of potable water supplied to households, partly by reducing leaks and partly by increasing water efficiency. Areas of Sussex have experimented with requiring water neutrality for new housing. Yet, water companies face major political problems in promoting reservoirs.

Drought has wider adverse effects not only on soils but for trees, weakening resilience to diseases and pests, limiting growth and increasing failures on planting and fire risk.

We are not alone in any of this. Last year, parts of Europe had their worst drought since 1540 with little replenishment this winter.

France and Spain have started imposing restrictions on water use. Two thirds of French rivers are reported as below normal water levels with less snow melt to come. This both limits hydro-electric generation – last year, the lowest for France since 1976 – and the cooling of riverside nuclear power stations. Nine municipalities in France’s Var department have announced that low groundwater levels and drought mean they will not issue any building permits for the next four years.

Drought threatens Europe’s great industrial inland navigations. The Canal du Midi is now grouping boats to go through locks. The Rhine might ordinarily carry some 170mt of goods but barges are already only taking half loads of diesel to pass a key shallow point, increasing shipping costs.

Again, it hits food production. Northern Italy’s fertile Po Valley, with less than 40 per cent of its usual rainfall this winter, has salt water coming further inland while moving to sunflowers needing less water means less maize is grown there to feed livestock.

Such a review of water shortage after a February seems remarkable. Nothing rules out a reversal of fortunes, let alone torrential rain and flooding. But last year’s high temperatures and drought only add to the warnings we have had of what can be to come. Failing to plan for it now will, at the least, be accepting greater risk for those agreeing contracts with supermarkets before they are assured of water. In reality, it may amount to planning to fail.