Jeremy's Blog 5th January 2024: Power Cables for the New Economy
As a striking achievement, the United Kingdom is now about halfway to its net zero target for 2050, the first G7 country to do so. With the lags in producing statistics, the headline territorial measure for UK-produced greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 has now been reported at 51 per cent of their level in 1990, lower than before the pandemic and expected to have fallen further in 2023.
With much of this achieved by increased renewable energy reducing the share of fossil fuel in electricity power generation, making much progress while disturbing few people. Coal demand is now assessed as back at the level of 1757, before the real development of the steam revolution. That is supported by technological change increasingly focused on this and by making it more normal to look for low carbon options. But for all the other policies and proposals, the simple answer lies in how power, in its various forms, is created.
Arithmetically, two points seem clear:
- this remains a very large task, requiring a further reduction of some 420 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent a year, much larger than to be answered alone by domestic solar panels and trees
- the relatively short period to 2050 for a project of this size is not only a tight timescale (shorter than the 34 years taken to halve emissions since 1990) but places a premium on early effective action.
The normal logic for a task like this is that the early gains are the easy gains – the low hanging fruit – with later stages requiring harder work for diminishing returns. That might be true for policies based on forcing more challenging and abrupt changes in people’s lives with the likely political reactions in a democracy. However, changes in markets will facilitate much of what is wanted but the ultimate winding down of the gas network will be a large issue.
The real backbone of the answer lies in accelerating the massive development of renewable and non-fossil fuel power generation, ideally doubling it by 2030 and doubling again by 2050, so that it also powers most heat and transport. That scale requires all answers, more wind turbines, on and offshore, more substantial solar farms, more nuclear and more from other sources.
The overlooked blind spot in this has been the gap between power generation and power use, the essential but prosaic matter of connections, distribution and transmission. Renewable projects are stymied by lack of connection and shortages of power supply frustrate new developments. Yet from Suffolk to Devon and Angus people resist new power lines.
The policies are now being put in place for this and the investment by National Grid (NG) and others (see Bute Energy in Wales) is beginning to roll. A month ago, Construction Inquirer noted NG seeking tenders for some £50 billion of major works and civil engineering contracts for the HVDC lines bringing power onshore. A 2022 consultation foresaw up to 400,000 miles of new and upgraded distribution cabling and the associated substations. With increasing dependence on electricity and more storms, ensuring the network’s resilience becomes a greater issue that may affect design.
This re-electrification of Britain, touching on the land of most clients will bring work in itself, unlock work in renewable energy schemes (for which NG is now “uncompromising” in prioritising projects that can proceed) and then enable new activity by overcoming the constraints of limited power supplies. With these cables as the sinews of the coming economy. this all bears on values.
Yet it will not happen without effort. Removing the bottleneck appears one of the most urgent tasks for the net zero goal. Government leadership is needed to explain this to those discomforted by new pylons – the suggested energy discounts might also help. Ways need to be found for this work to be done effectively and fairly with the landowners and farmers it will directly affect.
With electricity’s necessary wayleaves still essentially those introduced in the 1880s, we may need to re-think what the rights are and how they are secured. Better practice may be more important than stronger powers while coming work on ADR for compensation could also shorten and ease differences. We have to avoid this demonstrating the old saying of “more haste, less speed” – time is too tight.