Jeremy's Blog 3rd November 2023: Water, Wind and Fire
This article by Jeremy Moody first appeared in the CAAV e-Briefing of 2nd November 2023
The variability of British weather has long been a topic of conversation but our extreme weather events now come “not single spies but in battalions”.
Hundreds of acres of Lincolnshire farmland are still flooded and Angus had at least 11½” of rain in October, the wettest since its records started in 1891. As rain falls on saturated land, we see surface water flooding as well as river flooding – now in Northern Ireland as well. The Meteorological Office report on Storm Babet shows quite how far the rainfall was out of what had been the ordinary – most graphically illustrated on its page 12 for those areas with rainfall more than 225 per cent of their average for the first three weeks of October.
This year’s third named storm, Ciaran, is today bringing storm force winds to the southwest and then an area of the south looking like the one that took the brunt of the 1987 storm and again threatening trees, power supplies, buildings and travel. For coastal areas, it coincides with the height of spring tides. Across the country, we have a live test of recent flood defence works, in England intended to protect some 374,000 houses.
That is the picture when we are still in the autumn and have winter to come. But, looking over the year, our risks are not just water and wind. The new extremes also bring fire with its threats to life, farming, habitat, infrastructure and much else – with the potential for near-instant destruction of a house or an SSSI. It appears that the UK is crossing a threshold that substantially increases this risk. However, we do so with the benefit of a managed landscape with little abandonment and the lessons from experience in more fire-prone countries.
Last year saw 983 recorded wildfires, as distinguished from smaller vegetation fires. Wildfires were recorded in each fire service area in the whole UK. This is not just a summer phenomenon - two were in January and March alone had 165, more than in all of 2020. However, 19th July saw major incidents for 14 English fire services. While we may think of moor and heath fires, that was the London Fire Brigade’s busiest day since the Blitz. Such fires demand resources that are held for the full range of risks, perhaps an especial strain in rural areas.
As with flood, awareness of the risk then enables planning to manage and reduce it. Like flooding the risk cannot be removed, especially as most fires are said to have human origins. Safety measures have significantly reduced the number of serious house fires. A large part of this lies in managing vegetation which grows better in a wet country. The principal risk lies in “fine fuel”, typically scrub vegetation and debris but everything from grass and crops to heather and gorse. With a high ratio of surface area to volume, they can dry swiftly and then burn fast.
The answers will vary from site to site but precautionary burning and cutting can reduce fuel load, fire breaks can reduce spread and access tracks and equipment can help fire-fighting. Fire services appear receptive and potentially pro-active for practical discussions about managing the risks down and giving them knowledge of the land.
Again, this is about managing growing risk and building resilience. Success here would make this another aspect of land management rather than an uncontrolled risk with fatal and destructive consequences.